Fact or Fiction

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Fact or Fiction: Miami will more than double last season’s 15-win total and reinstate themselves back into the playoff picture.

Dustin Chapman: Fiction.

It’s very possible that Miami reclaims playoff status, but as of right now, I like Atlanta and potentially still Washington - although they are a bubble team - to fill the final two playoff spots in the East. Miami has a marvelous trio, but their interior weakness concerns me, even more so than their unstable point guard situation. In addition to that, you’re looking at a very unproven and fairly thin bench, especially until James Jones returns to action after New Year’s. There is no excuse for failing to at least double last season’s win total, however.

Nitro1118: Fact.

I could go on and on about the addition of All-Star Shawn Marion, the drafting of arguably the best rookie of the 2008-2009 class in Michael Beasley and other fellow rookie Mario Chalmers, the return of a healthy Udonis Haslem, the addition of the sharp-shooting James Jones, or adding Shaun Livingston via free agency. All very promising changes to last year’s D-League level talent pool that was the Miami Heat.

But, how far the Heat go rides on the return of Dwyane Wade. With his knee and shoulder looking healthy as ever during the 2008 Olympics, and a hunger for redemption after last year’s pitiful campaign, one of the NBA’s top 5 players is looking primed to have a monster season and keep his team in the playoff hunt.

valo35: Fact.

Playing in a less than stellar division, getting a healthy Wade, the potential rookie of the year Michael Beasley, and having Shawn Marion for an entire camp and preseason will get this team back on track and into the playoff picture.

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Fact or Fiction: After a complete roster tune-up, the LA Clippers will earn their first playoff berth since 2005.

Dustin Chapman: Fiction.

The new-look Clippers should be right there in the hunt as a top nine or ten Western Conference club, but do I believe that they are going to surpass the likes of a Dallas or healthy Portland for a low playoff seed? No. This is a team with nine new faces and a back-of-the-mind concern for injury. Give it another year or so.

Nitro1118: Fact.

Everyone is riding high on the Portland Blazers, and probably for good reason; they have arguably the NBA’s best young core and have added one of the league’s brightest young players in Greg Oden. However, I do feel that the Clippers, assuming good health, are going to be the better team during the 2008-2009 season. Last season, despite losing Elton Brand to injury and winning only 23 games, had a few very bright silver linings. The first being the emergence of Chris Kaman, who saw a huge jump in points, rebounds, blocks and FG %. The second being rookie Al Thornton quickly acclimating himself to the NBA game and being quite productive.

Now they have added a true #1 option in Baron Davis, who is one of the NBA’s best PG’s and is the kind of player that can carry a team to a low seed in the playoffs. The Clippers supplemented that signing with the trade for Marcus Camby, who is the NBA’s best shot blocker and an elite rebounder, with a fairly underrated offensive arsenal. To top it off, they added Eric Gordon via the draft and Ricky Davis through free agency.

All of these additions, mixed with the continuing development of Kaman and Thornton, will equal an 8th seed in the playoffs.

valo35: Fiction.

They will be in the running for the final spot, but the Trail Blazers ultimately will play better defense, be coached better, and make it over them.

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Fact or Fiction: Greg Oden will stay healthy and win the Rookie of the Year award.

Dustin Chapman: Fiction.

Greg Oden winning Rookie of the Year honors certainly wouldn’t send rays of shock through anyone’s body, including mine, but I look for this year’s ROY race to be similar to last. There could be two guys at the very top of the list, almost like a two-way race. Last year, it was Kevin Durant and Al Horford. Many, including myself, argued that Horford was the deserving candidate as he was a more complete player on a better team, but he fell short in votes because of Durant’s sexy numbers. If this year’s rookie battle is anything similar to my visions, it’ll fall in the same mold as last season with a potential playoff catalyst in Greg Oden falling second to the stat-stuffing Michael Beasley.

Then again, it has become fairly evident that the NBA lacks consistency in many areas, including award results. You never know.

Nitro1118: Fact AND Fiction.

While I do feel Oden is going to stay relatively healthy this year and have a very nice season, this year’s Rookie of the Year award will go to OJ Mayo. This is not necessarily to say that Mayo will be the better, or more important player of the two, but Mayo will have the kind of offensive responsibility and be in the kind of up-tempo system that will allow him to really show his entire arsenal and allow him to be the most productive rookie of the 2008-2009 class. Oden will have a big impact and be in the running much like Al Horford was last year, but Mayo’s stats and highlight plays will ultimately win him the award much like it did for Kevin Durant.

valo35: Fiction.

Greg Oden will stay healthy, but will not win the Rookie of the Year award. Michael Beasley being a scorer and playing next to Wade will win him the award.

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Fact or Fiction: Detroit’s streak of Eastern Conference Finals appearances, which currently stands at six years and running, will finally come to a close.

Dustin Chapman: Fact.

This is the year the Detroit Pistons officially begin to fall off. There’s a new kid in town by the name of LeBron James, who has knocked off Detroit once before, and he’s got himself a formidable perimeter sidekick to help fuel the fire. Barring significant injury, I think it’s safe to look for a Boston-Cleveland Eastern Conference Finals.

Ultimately, I believe that the 2009 Pistons will struggle inside and finally suffer with the fact that they do not have a single guy to play Paul Pierce to the opposition’s LeBron James in pivotal games (hell, that comment may turn out to be both figurative and literal when it’s all said and done). Detroit won’t go quietly as long as Rasheed Wallace has a vote, but they will go.

Nitro1118: Fact.

The core group that has been anchoring the Detroit Pistons for the last 5 years is not getting any younger, and the East is getting better and better. As it is, I simply do not see Detroit getting past the Celtics or Cavaliers in the playoffs. I’d also say it is a decent bet that the Sixers could jump ahead of them in the East this year with the addition of Elton Brand, and the Raptors could also be a very tough out if Jermaine O’Neal can stay healthy. The Orlando Magic are also going nowhere and should also improve as Dwight Howard does. Pistons fans seem to be very high on Amir Johnson (despite proving absolutely nothing thus far in his NBA career), and Rodney Stuckey is sure to improve, but I simply do not see that being enough to get them past the inevitable matchup with the Celtics, Cavaliers or Sixers in the 2nd round.

valo35: Fact.

Cleveland will get the third seed, meet Detroit in the second round and dispose of them.

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Fact or Fiction: The Boston Celtics will repeat at champions.

Dustin Chapman: Fact.

You know, it’s funny how everybody’s preseason predictions and write-ups are turning out as of late. Why? Because they are identical to last year’s.

“The Big Three look great, but Boston doesn’t have a good enough bench.” “(Player A) and (Player B) are too young to take on a large role on a team like this.” “The Celtics don’t have enough behind their stars.”

Let’s also not forget that the Celtics had just six returning players to last year’s roster; only three of which actually ended up as key rotation players in the postseason. They had to establish a new rotation with a new cast of players, a new attitude, and a new style of play. Everybody said that they couldn’t and wouldn’t, but at the end of the day, they did.

As Kevin Garnett put it on the night of June 17, 2008: “What can you say now?” Sure, Boston’s bench roles may now come more by committee than simply having the luxury throwing a single player like James Posey out there to complete multiple tasks at once, but this team didn’t go anywhere. “The Big Three” are still intact, youngsters like Rondo and Powe are still growing by the day, and 08-09 wild card Tony Allen has a real opportunity to reestablish himself as one of the top supporting guards in the NBA. The Boston Celtics are “on top of the world” until proven otherwise.

Nitro1118: Fiction.

While the Celtics are still without a doubt the best team in the Eastern Conference, the loss of James Posey will be critical. He provided them with top-notch perimeter defense and a dead-on 3pt shot that will be sorely missed. Another player that played well for the Celtics during the playoffs that will also be absent from their roster this year is PJ Brown, who gave them another big man with a good midrange jump shot and solid rebounding.

But, the primary reason the Celtics will not repeat is the improvement of the Lakers via Andrew Bynum, who gives them the toughness down low on both ends of the court that was ultimately the primary reason the Lakers lost in the 2008 Finals. Add onto that Trevor Ariza and another year of chemistry, and I do not see how the Celtics can beat the Lakers without Posey or Brown. Along with the Lakers, the Hornets and Rockets could also give the Celtics a fit with their new additions.

Repeating is one of the hardest tasks in the NBA, and with seemingly the entire NBA improving this year (specifically the elite teams of he West), I just do not see another championship for the Celtics this year.

valo35: Fiction.

Losing Posey takes away their most versatile defensive player, as well as their best bench option.